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Berwick-upon-Tweed
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13:01
- 27 April 2026
Fertiliser is one of the largest variable costs on any farm, yet the global forces that determine its price often feel far away from farms in the UK.
The UK is extremely reliant on fertiliser imports, which means disruptions to supply chains, production regions or shipping corridors quickly and directly affect the price UK farmers pay.
So, what should growers be watching for? Below, we break down the key global forces shaping fertiliser markets:
1. Energy Costs
One of the biggest drivers of fertiliser pricing is the cost of natural gas, which typically makes up around 60-80% of the production cost of nitrogen fertilisers. Products such as ammonium nitrate (AN) and urea are manufactured through the energy-intensive Haber-Bosch process and so energy price shocks pass through to farmers at speed.
In March 2026, during the US-Iran conflict, an attack on one of Qatar's gas hubs – one of the world's most important liquified nitrogen gas (LNG) export facilities – sent natural gas prices up by almost a quarter in a single day.
It's a pattern we've seen before. For example, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe lost access to one of its largest natural gas suppliers almost overnight, a key catalyst for the energy crisis that soon followed. Sanctions and supply disruptions drove ammonium nitrate prices to record levels, more than doubling within a year.
2. Geopolitics and trade routes
When key producing regions or shipping corridors are disrupted, it is difficult to source product easily elsewhere and the UK's overreliance on fertiliser imports makes it particularly vulnerable.
Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, fertiliser prices were already trading at historically elevated levels. The outbreak of the war sent prices higher still, triggering one of the most severe commodity shocks in recent history. Notably, the resulting price surge surpassed even the spike recorded during the escalation of US-Iran tensions.
The Strait of Hormuz sees around a fifth of the world's oil and LNG transported through it, alongside a third of key fertiliser materials. At points during the US-Iran conflict, daily vessel movements through the Strait fell from around 150 to three or four per day, limiting the availability of fertiliser products right when demand is at its peak.
Around 30% of global urea trade is produced in Iran and other Hormuz-constrained countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain, meaning a large share of global supply is effectively locked up.
It's not the first time geopolitics has choked supply chains. In 2021, China suspended fertiliser exports to protect domestic availability and, as China exports one-third of the world's DAP products, global fertiliser prices spiked sharply.
3. Freight costs
Shipping disruption doesn't just delay the movement of products, but it also significantly drives up freight costs.
As an example, during the US-Iran conflict, vessels that would normally transit the Strait of Hormuz faced war risk insurance premiums that surged several times and some insurers even withdrew Gulf coverage altogether.
Additionally, an estimated 20,000 seafarers found themselves stranded aboard approximately 2,500 vessels, trapped in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz.
Many ships, therefore, had to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa – just as they did during the Red Sea disruptions of 2023/24 – adding weeks to journey times and therefore substantially increasing fuel consumption.
When there are conflicts in regions that produce large quantities of gas and oil, it also invariably leads to rising diesel costs, which subsequently means many hauliers must implement fuel surcharges.
While farmers are typically among the first to be impacted by these price spikes, in time it is reflected in the price of food.
Optimising NUE
Moving forward, the fertiliser market will remain sensitive to global forces, with energy prices, geopolitical events, international trade flows and freight costs continuing to influence supply and pricing.
Growers can maximise their return on investment during these times by optimising their nutrient use efficiency (NUE), and this an area that our team of BASIS and FACTS qualified Farm Traders can assist with.
They can provide growers with a bespoke advisory and support service, from pH sampling and variable lime recommendations through to full nutrient management planning, ensuring that the right product is being applied in the right amount, at the right time.
